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Forecast-based action for conservation.

Victoria L Boult1,2

  • 1Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK.

Conservation Biology : the Journal of the Society for Conservation Biology
|January 20, 2023
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Forecast-based action (FbA) offers a novel approach to conservation by using weather forecasts to proactively mitigate extreme weather impacts on biodiversity. This framework, adapted from humanitarian aid, aims to translate ecological predictions into timely conservation interventions.

Keywords:
acción anticipadaacción basada en pronósticosanticipatory actionbiodiversidadbiodiversitycambio climáticoclima extremoclimate changeconservaciónconservationecological forecastingextreme weatherforecast-based actionhumanitarianhumanitariopronósticos ecológicos

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Conservation Biology
  • Climate Science

Background:

  • Extreme weather events increasingly threaten biodiversity, challenging traditional conservation methods.
  • Ecological forecasting shows promise for predicting conservation outcomes, but lacks practical application.
  • Meteorological forecasting and humanitarian innovations offer a potential solution.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose and outline a framework for forecast-based action (FbA) in conservation.
  • To demonstrate how FbA can translate meteorological forecasts into conservation actions.
  • To identify challenges and necessary changes for implementing FbA in conservation.

Main Methods:

  • Adapting the forecast-based action (FbA) framework from the humanitarian sector to conservation contexts.
  • Using a theoretical example of heatwave impacts on sea turtle embryo mortality to illustrate FbA concepts.
  • Identifying and discussing challenges in FbA implementation, including financing, fund allocation, and decision-making.

Main Results:

  • FbA provides a structured approach to use meteorological forecasts for anticipating and mitigating extreme weather impacts on biodiversity.
  • The theoretical example highlights the potential of FbA in addressing specific threats like heatwaves affecting sea turtle reproduction.
  • Key challenges include developing financing mechanisms, allocating anticipatory funds, and managing uncertainty in decision-making.

Conclusions:

  • Forecast-based action (FbA) requires significant shifts in conservation research, practice, and governance.
  • Conservation research must focus on actionable, immediate-timescale extreme weather impacts and involve co-production of forecasts.
  • International conservation funders need to establish systems for funding anticipatory actions based on uncertain forecasts.