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Radiation model for migration with directional preferences.

Lucas Kluge1,2, Anders Levermann1,2,3, Jacob Schewe1

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

The radiation model for human mobility struggles with long-distance migration. A new modification accounts for directional preferences, improving accuracy without adding parameters.

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Area of Science:

  • Human mobility modeling
  • Geographic information science
  • Computational social science

Background:

  • The radiation model is a parameter-free approach for human mobility, mainly used for short-distance movements like commuting.
  • Its application to migration, particularly long-distance moves (e.g., inter-state US migration), results in an underestimation of such movements.
  • The model exhibits a conceptual inconsistency impacting numerical outcomes for long-distance travel.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To address the limitations of the radiation model in capturing long-distance migration patterns.
  • To introduce a modification that resolves the conceptual inconsistency in the radiation model.
  • To improve the model's fit to observational migration data without introducing new parameters.

Main Methods:

  • A modification to the radiation model was proposed.
  • The modification incorporates the angle between alternative potential destinations.
  • This accounts for potential migrant directional preferences.

Main Results:

  • The modified radiation model mitigates the conceptual inconsistency.
  • The enhanced model demonstrates an improved fit to observational migration data.
  • No additional fitting parameters were required for the modification.

Conclusions:

  • The proposed modification enhances the radiation model's capability to simulate long-distance migration.
  • Accounting for directional preferences offers a more accurate representation of human migration patterns.
  • The improved model provides a valuable tool for understanding and predicting migration without increased complexity.