Clinicopathologic and sociodemographic factors associated with late relapse triple negative breast cancer in a...

Most metastatic recurrences of triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) occur within five years of diagnosis, yet late relapses of TNBC (lrTNBC) do occur. Our objective was to develop a risk prediction model of lrTNBC using readily available clinicopathologic and sociodemographic features.

We included patients diagnosed with stage I-III TNBC between 1998 and 2012 at ten academic cancer centers. lrTNBC was defined as relapse or mortality greater than 5 years from diagnosis. Features associated with lrTNBC were included in a multivariable logistic model using backward elimination with a p < 0.10 criterion, with a final multivariable model applied to training (70%) and independent validation (30%) cohorts.

A total 2210 TNBC patients with at least five years follow-up and no relapse before 5 years were included. In final multivariable model, lrTNBC was significantly associated with higher stage at diagnosis (adjusted Odds Ratio [aOR] for stage III vs I, 10.9; 95% Confidence Interval [CI], 7.5-15.9; p < 0.0001) and BMI (aOR for obese vs normal weight, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.0-1.8; p = 0.03). Final model performance was consistent between training (70%) and validation (30%) cohorts.

A risk prediction model incorporating stage, BMI, and age at diagnosis offers potential utility for identification of patients at risk of development of lrTNBC and warrants further investigation.