Mapping wasted children using data from the Ethiopia Demographic and Health Surveys between 2000 and 2019: A bayesian...

Undernutrition, particularly wasting, is continuing to be a major challenge in developing countries like Ethiopia. However, data on the geographic variations over time are limited. We aimed to investigate the spatiotemporal variation of wasting in Ethiopia using two decades of Ethiopia Demographic and Health Surveys data, from 2000 to 2019.

Trend and geospatial regression analysis using a bayesian framework were used to predict wasting in Ethiopia among children aged <5 y. The primary outcomes (wasting) were obtained from the Ethiopia Demographic and Health Surveys conducted between 2000 and 2019. Covariates were accessed from different publicly available credible sources at a high resolution. The spatial binomial regression model through the bayesian framework was fitted to identify drivers of wasting among children in Ethiopia.

The overall national prevalence of wasting among children aged <5 y in Ethiopia was 11.9% in 2000, 11.1% in 2005, 10.2% in 2011, 12.3% in 2016, and 9.4% in 2019, with substantial spatial variation across subnational and local levels over time. Spatial clustering of wasting was observed in eastern Ethiopia (Afar and Somali regions). Altitude (mean regression coefficient = -0.38; 95% credible interval, -0.69 to -0.07) and population density (mean regression coefficient = -0.02; 95% credible interval, -0.03 to -0.01) were negatively associated with wasting, whereas distance to health facilities (mean regression coefficient = 0.13; 95% credible interval, 0.03-0.23) was positively associated with wasting.

The reduction in the national prevalence of wasting among children was not as expected. Spatial clustering of wasting was observed in the northern, northeastern, eastern, and western parts of Ethiopia. Spatial clustering of wasting was associated with altitude, precipitation, population density, distance to health facilities, travel time to the nearest cities, and distance to a water body. Early screening and treatment of wasted children should be strengthened. Furthermore, outreach community awareness, especially in rural parts of the country, should be recommended through community health extension workers.