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Counterpossibles in science: an experimental study.

Brian McLoone1,2, Cassandra Grützner3, Michael T Stuart4,5,6

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Scientists do not always accept the vacuity thesis for counterpossibles. Biologists judged counterfactuals based on mathematical relationships, not just impossibility, suggesting non-vacuous reasoning in science.

Keywords:
Counterfactual reasoningCounterpossiblesImpossible worldsModel-based reasoningThe vacuity thesis

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Area of Science:

  • Philosophy of Science
  • Cognitive Science
  • Biology

Background:

  • The vacuity thesis posits that all counterpossibles (counterfactuals with impossible antecedents) are true solely due to their impossibility.
  • Recent challenges to the vacuity thesis lack experimental grounding.
  • It remains unclear if scientists engage in non-vacuous reasoning with counterpossibles.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate whether scientists reason non-vacuously about counterpossibles.
  • To explore the basis of scientists' judgments regarding counterpossibles.
  • To provide the first experimental data on counterpossibles in scientific reasoning.

Main Methods:

  • Presented 86 biologists with two counterfactual formulations of a biological model.
  • Antecedents of the counterfactuals involved metaphysical impossibilities.
  • Collected participants' judgments on the truth value of counterfactuals and their reasoning.

Main Results:

  • Participants consistently judged one counterfactual as true and the other as false.
  • Judgments were based on perceived mathematical relationships between antecedent and consequent.
  • No correlation was found between perceived antecedent impossibility and truth judgments.

Conclusions:

  • Biologists' reasoning about counterpossibles is not solely determined by the impossibility of the antecedent.
  • Mathematical relationships play a key role in evaluating counterfactuals with impossible antecedents.
  • Findings challenge the vacuity thesis and support a modal semantics for non-vacuous counterpossible reasoning.