Predictors of Distant Metastasis and Prognosis in Newly Diagnosed T1 Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma

According to American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 8th staging system, T1 intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (T1 ICC) is considered a tumor with no vascular invasion. However, T1 ICC usually occurs distant metastasis (DM), and the clinical features of these patients could help clinicians identify the high-risk population.

We reviewed 1959 newly diagnosed patients with T1 ICC from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database during 2004-2018. Logistic regression models and Cox proportional hazards models were conducted to predict the risk of DM and overall survival (OS), respectively, and then, web-based nomograms were constructed. Decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curves (CIC) were used to measure the clinical utility of the models. The low-, medium-, and high-risk groups were identified by calculating the summary of the risk points. Nomograms on the web were also created to help clinicians better use these prediction models.

Tumor size and lymph node metastasis accounted for the first two largest proportions among the DM nomogram scores, while surgery, DM, age at diagnosis, chemotherapy, and lymph node metastasis occupied the largest percentage in OS nomogram. DM nomogram was established for these newly diagnosed patients with T1 ICC, and OS nomogram was developed to visually predict the OS rate of 3, 5, and 10 years. The calibration curves revealed a valid predictive accuracy of nomograms, of which the C-index was 0.703 and 0.740, respectively, for good discrimination. DCAs, CICs, and risk subgroups showed the clinical validity of these nomograms. Two websites were created to make it easier to use these nomograms.

Novel web-based nomograms predicting the risk of DM and OS for T1 ICC were constructed. These predictive tools might help clinicians make precise clinical strategies for each patient with T1 ICC.