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Mortality as a Function of Survival.

Jesús-Adrián Alvarez1,2, James W Vaupel2

  • 1Danish Labour Market Supplementary Pension Fund (ATP), Hillerød, Denmark.

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|January 27, 2023
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Summary

Everyone has a chronological age and a survivorship age (s-age). Mortality patterns across survivorship ages are remarkably consistent across diverse populations, indicating universal demographic dynamics.

Keywords:
AgingPostponement of mortalityRisk of dyingSurvivorship age

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Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Population Health
  • Mortality Science

Background:

  • Individuals possess chronological age, but also a survivorship age (s-age), representing the age at which a specific proportion 's' of a population remains alive.
  • Age-specific death rates greater than zero lead to a continuous decline in survivorship.
  • S-ages can be calculated for both period and cohort data.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the consistency of mortality trajectories when analyzed by survivorship age (s-age) across different populations and time periods.
  • To determine if mortality dynamics exhibit regularity when standardized by survivorship levels.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of mortality data from 23 sex-specific populations.
  • Estimation of survivorship ages (s-ages) for the analyzed populations.
  • Comparison of mortality trajectories plotted against chronological age versus survivorship age.

Main Results:

  • Mortality trajectories differ significantly when plotted against chronological age across various populations, sexes, and time periods.
  • Mortality trajectories demonstrate remarkable similarity when plotted against survivorship age (s-age).
  • This demographic regularity was confirmed across 23 sex-specific populations over more than a century.

Conclusions:

  • Survivorship age (s-age) provides a standardized metric for comparing mortality dynamics across diverse populations.
  • The observed regularity in mortality over s-ages suggests universal patterns in population aging and survival.
  • This finding has implications for comparative demography and understanding population health trends.