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Two-dimensional constrained chaos and industrial revolution cycles
Makoto Yano1,2, Yuichi Furukawa2,3
1Kyoto University, 606-8501 Kyoto, Japan.
Summary
Industrial revolutions, like technology bursts, recur approximately every 100 years. This pattern emerges from two-dimensional (2D) constrained chaos, driven by R&D investment and limited monopolistic technology use.
Area of Science:
- Economics
- Technological Innovation
- Complexity Science
Background:
- Multiple industrial revolutions have occurred since the 1760s.
- Understanding the cyclical nature of major technological advancements is crucial.
Purpose of the Study:
- To explain the recurring phenomenon of industrial revolutions.
- To introduce a novel theoretical framework for innovation dynamics.
Main Methods:
- Development of a two-dimensional (2D) constrained chaos model.
- Simulation of innovation dynamics driven by R&D investment/saving motives.
Main Results:
- The model demonstrates recurring technology bursts, resembling industrial revolutions.
- A cycle of approximately 100 years is observed under specific conditions.
Conclusions:
- Two-dimensional (2D) constrained chaos provides a framework for understanding industrial revolutions.
- The duration of monopolistic technology use (approx. 8 years) influences the recurrence interval.
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