Prediction of in-hospital mortality among intensive care unit patients using modified daily Laboratory-based Acute...

Mortality prediction for intensive care unit (ICU) patients frequently relies on single acuity measures based on ICU admission physiology without accounting for subsequent clinical changes.

Evaluate novel models incorporating modified admission and daily, time-updating Laboratory-based Acute Physiology Scores, version 2 (LAPS2) to predict in-hospital mortality among ICU patients.

Retrospective cohort study.

All ICU patients in five hospitals from October 2017 through September 2019.

We used logistic regression, penalized logistic regression, and random forest models to predict in-hospital mortality within 30 days of ICU admission using admission LAPS2 alone in patient-level and patient-day-level models, or admission and daily LAPS2 at the patient-day level. Multivariable models included patient and admission characteristics. We performed internal-external validation using four hospitals for training and the fifth for validation, repeating analyses for each hospital as the validation set. We assessed performance using scaled Brier scores (SBS), c-statistics, and calibration plots.

The cohort included 13,993 patients and 120,101 ICU days. The patient-level model including the modified admission LAPS2 without daily LAPS2 had an SBS of 0.175 (95% CI 0.148-0.201) and c-statistic of 0.824 (95% CI 0.808-0.840). Patient-day-level models including daily LAPS2 consistently outperformed models with modified admission LAPS2 alone. Among patients with <50% predicted mortality, daily models were better calibrated than models with modified admission LAPS2 alone.

Models incorporating daily, time-updating LAPS2 to predict mortality among an ICU population perform as well or better than models incorporating modified admission LAPS2 alone.