Modeling a Multi-Parameter Interaction of Geophysical Controls for Production Optimization in Gas Shale Systems

Well bottomhole pressure optimization issue has been a significant concern for efficiently developing unconventional systems due to strong stress sensitivity. Therefore, it is of practical interest to clarify influence mechanisms involved in stress sensitivity for gas shale, which is further included in the production model to determine main controlling factors for bottomhole pressure strategy optimization for long term hydrocarbon extraction. Currently, many production models were limited in exploring stress sensitivity mechanisms but adopted common empirical equations regarding net pore stress instead. In addition, geophysical control analysis for unconventional systems optimization was mostly conducted using local sensitivity qualitative analysis, which should be validated to be reliable and applicable to fields using multi-parameter interaction influence. As a result, in this paper, an efficient workflow to rationally optimize gas well production system was provided by combining the production model, orthogonal design approach, and response surface method. To be specific, the compound flow model for shale gas reservoirs, incorporating multiple stress sensitivity mechanisms, was proposed to function as a theoretical basis for production optimization simulation. Last but not least, local sensitivity analysis was conducted to qualitatively analyze the impact of influencing factors on 20 year-production of gas wells under different bottomhole production methods. The simulation results showed that the managed pressure drawdown scheme can be adopted for reservoirs with high reservoir pressure and tight matrix properties, while the high-pressure drawdown scheme is suitable for reservoir with better fracturing effect and high external water content. Finally, based on the proposed gas flow model and orthogonal design experiments, response surface design and single factor analysis as well, an optimization mathematical model for shale gas multi-parameter interaction was established, which intuitively quantified the effects of multi-geophysical controls on EUR increase in different production durations, including matrix properties, fracture properties, and production system indicator parameters. These findings provide a more reliable reference for production system optimization based on a series of mathematical approaches to improve overall long-term recovery from shale gas reservoirs.