Expectations, reference points, and compliance with COVID-19 social distancing measures

Area of Science:

• Behavioral economics
• Public policy analysis
• Sociology

Background:

• COVID-19 lockdowns necessitated social-isolation measures.
• Understanding compliance behavior is crucial for policy effectiveness.
• Policy duration announcements can influence public adherence.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the behavioral impact of policy duration announcements.
• To examine the relationship between expectations and compliance during COVID-19 lockdowns.
• To analyze how mismatched expectations affect adherence to social-isolation measures.

Main Methods:

• Survey of representative Italian residents during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Three data collection points to assess intentions regarding social-isolation measures.
• Analysis of compliance intentions based on hypothetical policy extension durations versus expectations.

Main Results:

• Individuals reduced compliance effort when policy extensions exceeded expectations.
• Positive surprises (shorter extensions than expected) had a less significant impact on compliance.
• Mismatched expectations between policy announcements and individual beliefs influenced behavior.

Conclusions:

• Expectations serve as critical reference points in policy perception.
• Discrepancies between expected and announced policy durations affect compliance.
• Public authorities should align policy communications with citizen expectations for better adherence.