Prediction of histologic types in solid lung lesions using preoperative contrast-enhanced CT

This study aimed to develop and validate a predicting model for the histologic classification of solid lung lesions based on preoperative contrast-enhanced CT.

A primary dataset of 1012 patients from Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital (TMUCIH) was randomly divided into a development cohort (708) and an internal validation cohort (304). Patients from the Second Hospital of Shanxi Medical University (SHSMU) were set as an external validation cohort (212). Two clinical factors (age, gender) and twenty-one characteristics on contrast-enhanced CT were used to construct a multinomial multivariable logistic regression model for the classification of seven common histologic types of solid lung lesions. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used to assess the diagnostic performance of the model in the development and validation cohorts, separately.

Multivariable analysis showed that two clinical factors and twenty-one characteristics on contrast-enhanced CT were predictive in lung lesion histologic classification. The mean AUC of the proposed model for histologic classification was 0.95, 0.94, and 0.92 in the development, internal validation, and external validation cohort, respectively. When determining the malignancy of lung lesions based on histologic types, the mean AUC of the model was 0.88, 0.86, and 0.90 in three cohorts.

We demonstrated that by utilizing both clinical and CT characteristics on contrast-enhanced CT images, the proposed model could not only effectively stratify histologic types of solid lung lesions, but also enabled accurate assessment of lung lesion malignancy. Such a model has the potential to avoid unnecessary surgery for patients and to guide clinical decision-making for preoperative treatment.

• Clinical and CT characteristics on contrast-enhanced CT could be used to differentiate histologic types of solid lung lesions. • Predicting models using preoperative contrast-enhanced CT could accurately assessment of tumor malignancy based on predicted histologic types.