Clinical Features and Prognostic Models in Patients with Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma: a Population-Based Analysis

This study aims to construct a risk classification system and a nomogram in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinomafor patients (ICC).

Three thousand seven hundred thirty-seven patients diagnosed with ICC between 2010 and 2015 were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results. The consistency index, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve, and the calibration plots were adopted to evaluate the effective performance of nomogram. Decision curve analysis (DCA), net reclassification index (NRI), and comprehensive discrimination improvement (IDI) were used to compare the advantages and disadvantages of two models. Kaplan-Meier curve showed the difference in prognosis among different groups.

Ten variables were selected to establish the nomogram for ICCA. The C-index (training cohort: 0.765, P < 0.05; validation cohort: 0.776, P < 0.05) and the time-dependent AUCs (the training cohort: the values of 1, 3, 5 years were 0.836, 0.873, and 0.888; the validation cohort: the values of 1, 3, 5 years were 0.833, 0.838, and 0.881) showed satisfactory discrimination. The calibration curves also revealed that the nomogram was consistent with the actual observations. The NRI (training cohort: 1-, 3-, 5-year CSS: 0.879, 0.94, 0.771; validation cohort: 1-, 3-, 5-year CSS: 0.905, 0.945, 0.717) and IDI (training cohort: 1-, 3-, 5-year CSS: 0.24, 0.23, 0.22; validation cohort: 1-, 3-, 5-year CSS: 0.24, 0.46, 0.27) (P < 0.05) (compared with AJCC staging). DCA showed that the new model was more practical and had better recognition than AJCC staging.

A new risk stratification system for ICC patients has been developed, which can be a practical tool for patient management.