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Generalized Gamma-CUSUM control chart with application of COVID-19 deaths
Olatunde Adebayo Adeoti1, Kayode Samuel Adekeye2
1Department of Statistics, School of Physical Sciences, Federal University of Technology Akure, Akure, Nigeria.
This study models COVID-19 mortality in Nigeria using statistical distributions and proposes a Gamma-CUSUM control chart. The new chart effectively detects changes in COVID-19 deaths earlier than standard methods.
Area of Science:
- Statistics
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
Background:
- The COVID-19 pandemic presents significant challenges in mortality analysis.
- Effective statistical models and monitoring systems are crucial for understanding and managing pandemic-related deaths.
Purpose of the Study:
- To model COVID-19 mortality in Nigeria using generalized gamma distribution.
- To propose and evaluate a Gamma-CUSUM control chart for monitoring COVID-19 deaths.
Main Methods:
- Utilized four non-normal distributions within the generalized gamma distribution framework.
- Developed a Gamma-CUSUM control chart and compared its performance against the standard normal-CUSUM chart.
Main Results:
- The Gamma-CUSUM chart detected a change in COVID-19 deaths on day 68.
- The standard normal-CUSUM chart failed to signal any change during the same period.
- The Gamma-CUSUM chart accurately identified the exact point of change in mortality data.
Conclusions:
- The generalized gamma distribution provides a suitable model for COVID-19 mortality data.
- The proposed Gamma-CUSUM chart is a more sensitive and effective monitoring tool for COVID-19 deaths compared to the standard normal-CUSUM chart.
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