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Predicting accidental release of engineered nanomaterials to the environment
Fadri Gottschalk1, Bruno Debray2, Fred Klaessig3
1ETSS AG, Engineering, Technical and Scientific Services, Strada, Switzerland.
Nature Nanotechnology
|February 2, 2023
Summary
Assessing accidental release risks for engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) is challenging. This study predicts a 7% chance of severe ENM accidental release in 10 years, rising to 10-20% in 30 years.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Risk Assessment
- Nanotechnology
Background:
- Distinguishing natural and engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) is difficult.
- Lack of historical ENM accident data hinders impact assessment.
- Nuclear industry knowledge informs ENM risk prediction.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the likelihood of accidental ENM release rates over 10 and 30 years.
- To evaluate risk predictive methodologies for ENMs.
- To propose modeling approaches for estimating accidental release risk probabilities.
Main Methods:
- Developed two independent modeling approaches (M1 and M2).
- M1: Assigned 0.5% of reported accidents to ENM-releasing events.
- M2: Based on expert opinion evaluation.
- Compared model results with empirical evidence.
Main Results:
- Both M1 and M2 models showed good correlation.
- Predicted a 7% probability of severe accidental release in the next 10 years (M1).
- Predicted 10% (M2) and 20% (M1) probabilities for severe accidental release in the next 30 years.
Conclusions:
- The study provides a quantitative risk assessment for accidental ENM releases.
- Findings are relevant for regulatory frameworks concerning nanomaterial safety.
- Proposed modeling approaches can aid future risk estimations.
