Historical spatiotemporal changes in fire danger potential across biomes

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Climate Science
• Ecology

Background:

• Global climate change is altering natural ecosystems.
• Understanding fire danger dynamics is crucial for ecosystem management and risk assessment.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify seasons and biomes with significant changes in fire danger potential (FWI).
• To explore fire behavior potentials (ERC, IC) contributing to these changes.
• To analyze the relationship between fire potentials and climatic variables (temperature, precipitation) across biomes.

Main Methods:

• Utilized ERA5 and CRU TS datasets for fire potentials, temperature, and precipitation (1980-2019).
• Applied the Mann-Kendall test to detect significant spatiotemporal trends in fire danger and behavior potentials.
• Correlated fire potentials with seasonal mean air temperature and precipitation totals across biomes.

Main Results:

• The September-November (SON) season showed the highest increase in fire danger potential, followed by June-August (JJA).
• Temperate biomes experienced the greatest increase in fire intensity and ignition potential, especially during December-February (DJF) and March-May (MAM).
• Positive correlations between fire danger potential and temperature were found in JJA for Northern Hemisphere temperate and tropical biomes.

Conclusions:

• Fire danger potential is escalating, with distinct seasonal and biome-specific patterns.
• Changes in fire behavior potentials are linked to climatic shifts, particularly temperature increases.
• These findings offer quantitative insights into regional fire risk dynamics under climate change.