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Measuring Fertility Intentions During Times of Crisis: An Example Using Survey Data Amid the Covid-19 Pandemic
Letícia J Marteleto1,2, Molly Dondero3, Sneha Kumar2
1Department of Sociology, University of Texas-Austin, Austin, TX, USA.
Studies in Family Planning
|February 5, 2023
Summary
Measuring fertility intentions during macrostructural shocks like the Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic is challenging. This study introduces new indicators to capture pandemic-related changes in fertility intentions, considering postponement, advancement, and indecision.
Area of Science:
- Reproductive Health
- Sociology
- Demography
Background:
- Fertility intentions are crucial predictors of reproductive health outcomes.
- Measuring fertility intentions is complex, especially during macrostructural shocks due to volatility and data collection constraints.
- The Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic presents a significant macrostructural shock impacting fertility decisions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To propose novel indicators for measuring fertility intentions during macrostructural shocks, focusing on the Covid-19 pandemic.
- To advance the conceptualization and measurement of fertility intentions by incorporating direct attribution to shocks, a typology of intention changes, and granular time windows.
- To analyze variations in pandemic-related fertility intention changes by social origin and parity.
Main Methods:
- Development of direct questions assessing women's attribution of fertility intention changes to the Covid-19 pandemic.
- Application of a typology distinguishing fertility postponement, advancement, foregoing, and indecision.
- Utilizing a granular two-year time window to capture short-term shifts in fertility intentions.
- Analysis of survey data from a probabilistic sample of women aged 18-34 in Pernambuco, Brazil, examining self-reported changes and panel changes across waves.
Main Results:
- Demonstrated the value of directly asking women about pandemic-induced changes in their fertility intentions.
- Highlighted the utility of a typology categorizing intention shifts (postponement, advancement, foregoing, indecision).
- Showcased the importance of a short-term (two-year) window for capturing dynamic changes in fertility intentions.
- Identified variations in fertility intention changes related to Covid-19 based on social origin and parity.
Conclusions:
- The proposed indicators offer a more nuanced and accurate way to measure fertility intentions during periods of significant societal disruption.
- Understanding how macrostructural shocks influence fertility intentions is vital for reproductive health research and policy.
- The findings underscore the need for context-specific and temporally sensitive measures when assessing fertility intentions in dynamic environments.
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