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[Estimation of serial interval and basic reproductive number for imported cases of COVID-19]
Jorge M Estrada-Alvarez1, Juan J Ospina-Ramírez2, Maryluz Hincapié-Acuña3
1JE: Terapeuta Respiratorio. Lic. Matemáticas; M. Sc. Epidemiología. Chile. M. Sc. Estadística Aplicada, Secretaría de Salud y Seguridad Social de Pereira, Investigador Comfamiliar Risaralda. Pereira, Colombia. jmario.estrada.alvarez@gmail.com.
Objective:
To estimate the serial interval and the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 between imported cases during the containment phase in Pereira-Colombia, 2020.
Method:
A quantitative study was carried out to determine the transmission dynamics for COVID-19. Field epidemiological data were used, which included 12 laboratory-confirmed cases with RT-PCR for imported SARS-CoV-2 and their corresponding confirmed secondary cases, including family and social contacts.
Results:
The serial intervals in COVID-19 fit a Gamma distribution, with a mean of the serial interval of 3.8 days (2.7) and an R0 of 1.7 (95% CI 1.06-2.7) lower than that found in other populations with onset of the outbreak.
Conclusions:
A serial interval lower than the incubation period such as that estimated in this study, suggests a presymptomatic transmission period that according to other investigations reaches an average peak at 3.8 days, suggesting that during the field epidemiological investigation the search for contacts Narrowing is performed from at least 2 days before the onset of symptoms of the initial case.
