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Case study of a landslide continuous probability rainfall threshold analysis based on the prediction interval
Yu Huang1,2, Cuizhu Zhao3, Xiaoyan Jin3
1Department of Geotechnical Engineering, College of Civil Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092, China. yhuang@tongji.edu.cn.
Scientific Reports
|February 10, 2023
Summary
Landslides in Bazhong City are strongly linked to 10-day rainfall events. This study establishes rainfall thresholds to predict landslide risk, aiding disaster prevention efforts.
Area of Science:
- Geosciences
- Environmental Science
- Disaster Management
Background:
- Bazhong City's geology, characterized by red-bed strata with interbedded sand and mudstone, creates weak conditions susceptible to rainfall-induced landslides.
- Previous landslide events in Bazhong City between 2011 and 2019 highlight the need for a quantitative understanding of rainfall triggers.
Purpose of the Study:
- To statistically analyze the correlation between rainfall and landslide events in Bazhong City.
- To establish effective rainfall thresholds for predicting landslide occurrence.
- To provide a basis for engineering disaster prevention and mitigation.
Main Methods:
- Statistical analysis of landslide data (2011-2019) and ERA5-Land rainfall data.
- Median nonlinear fitting to derive cumulative rainfall-duration threshold curves.
- Calculation and verification of critical rainfall thresholds based on prediction intervals and landslide occurrence probabilities.
- Establishment of a continuous probability distribution function for landslide occurrence.
Main Results:
- Landslide events in Bazhong City are significantly influenced by rainfall sustained over 10 days.
- An effective cumulative rainfall-duration threshold curve was developed using median nonlinear fitting.
- Rainfall threshold formulas were derived for various landslide probabilities, including a critical 1% non-exceeding probability threshold.
- A continuous probability distribution surface for landslide occurrence was successfully established.
Conclusions:
- The study provides a quantitative method to assess landslide risk based on rainfall characteristics in Bazhong City.
- The established rainfall thresholds and probability distributions offer a valuable tool for predicting future landslide events.
- This research supports improved disaster prevention and mitigation strategies for rainfall-induced landslides in the region.
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