[Detecting Influencing Factor of Vegetation NPP in Southwest China Based on Spatial Scale Effect]

Vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) is an important parameter for evaluating the quality of terrestrial ecosystems. It is of great importance to study the spatio-temporal evolution of vegetation NPP and its driving force for regional ecological environment protection and sustainable development. On the basis of MODIS NPP data, meteorological data, DEM data, population density data, GDP data, and land use type data, this study used linear regression analysis, R/S analysis, and a Geodetector model to analyze the spatio-temporal variation in vegetation NPP and its future changing trend on both regional and landform scales and to detect the influencing factors that affect the spatial differentiation of vegetation NPP. The results showed that the vegetation NPP exhibited an extremely significant upward trend in southwest China from 2000 to 2020. On the landform scale, the vegetation NPP had showed an upward trend in all landforms, except for the southern Tibet Plateau; among them, the vegetation NPP in the Sichuan Basin showed the most obvious upward trend. The variation in vegetation NPP exhibited obvious spatial heterogeneity in southwest China, with the changing rate of "high in the east and low in the west." The areas with an upward trend of vegetation NPP were greater than the areas with a downward trend, but the changing trend was dominated by a decreasing trend in the future, both in southwest China and each landform unit. The Geodetector results showed that elevation was the dominant factor controlling the spatial differentiation of vegetation NPP in southwest China and all landform units, except for the Yunan-Guizhou Plateau, in which the spatial differentiation of vegetation NPP was mostly dominated by temperature. The interaction detection results showed that the interaction between the influencing factors was manifested as two-factor enhancement or nonlinear enhancement. The interaction between elevation and temperature showed the highest impact on vegetation NPP distribution. On the landform scale, the spatial differential of vegetation NPP was dominated by the interaction between elevation and climate factors or elevation and GDP in the Guangxi Hills, Sichuan Basin, Zoige Plateau, Hengduan Mountains, and southern Tibet Plateau and between climate factors in the Yunan-Guizhou Plateau. The above results indicated that vegetation NPP variation and the influencing factors that dominate its spatial differential in southwest China showed obvious scale effects. Therefore, exploring the dynamic variation in vegetation NPP and its influencing factors at different spatial scales has practical significance for a comprehensive understanding of the vegetation cover situation and formulating regional ecological restoration plans in southwest China.