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Socio-economic development drives solid waste management performance in cities: A global analysis using machine
Costas A Velis1, David C Wilson2, Yoni Gavish1
1School of Civil Engineering, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, SW7 2AZ, UK.
The Science of the Total Environment
|February 13, 2023
Summary
Socioeconomic development significantly influences municipal solid waste (MSW) management in Global South cities. While progress is evident, exceeding average development requires addressing systemic failures to improve waste recovery and disposal rates.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Urban Planning
- Data Science
Background:
- Mismanaged municipal solid waste (MSW) in Global South cities causes pollution and climate issues.
- A lack of comprehensive data has hindered understanding of MSW management performance.
- Socioeconomic factors are hypothesized to significantly impact MSW management outcomes.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the first quality-assured global dataset on MSW management performance indicators (WABI).
- To quantitatively test the hypothesis linking socioeconomic development to MSW management performance.
- To establish a baseline for SDG 11.6.1 and explore factors beyond basic service coverage.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the Wasteaware Cities Benchmark Indicators (WABI) dataset.
- Applied machine learning (random forest) and non-linear regression.
- Correlated MSW performance with socioeconomic variables like GDP per capita, SPI, and CPI.
Main Results:
- Confirmed a strong correlation between socioeconomic development indices and MSW management performance.
- Established baseline controlled recovery and disposal rates across income levels (45% low-income to 100% high-income).
- Service quality improvements often lag behind coverage expansion, and business-as-usual development increases waste generation.
Conclusions:
- Socioeconomic development is a key driver of MSW management performance.
- Low- and middle-income cities show progress but need to overcome systemic failures for better performance.
- Decoupling waste generation from development requires new policies to avoid increased per capita waste.
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