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Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
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Setting Health Targets Using Information from Probabilistic Projections: A Research Brief on an Application to

Ann Biddlecom1, Elizabeth A Sully2, Vladimíra Kantorová3

  • 1Independent researcher, New York, NY USA.

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|February 15, 2023
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Setting measurable targets for family planning is crucial for national planning. Probabilistic projections can guide countries in achieving accelerated contraceptive coverage, reducing unmet needs and unintended pregnancies.

Keywords:
ContraceptionEvidence-based policyInternational healthMeasurement

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Area of Science:

  • Global Health
  • Reproductive Health
  • Health Policy

Background:

  • Aspirational targets are insufficient for national health planning.
  • Measurable, time-defined targets are essential for monitoring progress in health services.
  • Country-specific targets require data reflecting diverse starting points and progress rates.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To demonstrate the utility of probabilistic projections for setting country-specific family planning targets.
  • To analyze the cost and impact of different contraceptive coverage scenarios in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).
  • To inform national planning and budgeting for expanded health service coverage.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized probabilistic projections of health outcomes and service coverage.
  • Applied the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) indicator for modern contraceptive use.
  • Modeled contraceptive coverage scenarios for 131 LMICs.

Main Results:

  • Accelerated progress targets could achieve 83% of the need for modern contraception by 2030 in LMICs, a 5% increase over current projections.
  • This accelerated progress translates to 41 million fewer women with unmet needs and 14 million fewer unintended pregnancies.
  • Achieving these targets requires an additional $480 million in annual direct costs for contraceptive services by 2030.

Conclusions:

  • Probabilistic projections offer a valuable tool for setting realistic and ambitious national health targets.
  • Informed target setting can guide governments in planning and budgeting for improved contraceptive services.
  • This approach supports achieving Sustainable Development Goals related to reproductive health.