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Expected climate change consequences and their role in explaining individual risk judgments
Thea Gregersen1,2,3, Rouven Doran1, Gisela Böhm1,4
1Department of Psychosocial Science, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway.
Plos One
|February 15, 2023
Summary
Most Europeans anticipate environmental changes from climate change. However, demographic factors like age and political leaning influence perceptions of climate change impacts and associated risks.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Social Science
- Risk Perception
Background:
- Public perception of climate change impacts is crucial for policy support.
- Understanding how individuals anticipate climate change effects informs risk communication strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate public expectations of climate change impacts across four European countries.
- To examine the relationship between perceived impacts and individual risk judgments.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of open-ended responses from representative samples (n>1000) in the UK, Norway, Germany, and France.
- Categorization of expected impacts into six themes: attitudes/goals, human activities, emissions, environmental changes, human impacts, or no impacts.
- Correlation of impact expectations with risk perception measures, including worry and expected negativity.
Main Results:
- Environmental changes were the most frequently cited expected impact of climate change.
- Differences in expected impacts were observed across countries (e.g., UK/Norway mentioning human activities more) and demographics (older, right-leaning individuals expected fewer impacts).
- Expectations of changes in attitudes/goals, environmental changes, or human impacts correlated with higher climate change worry and perceived negative effects.
Conclusions:
- Public expectations of climate change impacts are diverse but predominantly focus on environmental shifts.
- Demographic factors significantly shape perceptions of climate change consequences and individual risk.
- Specific impact expectations are linked to heightened climate change concern and perceived personal risk.
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