Source apportionment of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) using different receptor models: A case study on sediment...

Multivariate modelling techniques are used by a wide variety of investigations in environmental chemistry. It is surprisingly rare for studies to show a detailed understanding of uncertainties created by modelling or how uncertainties in chemical analysis impact model outputs. It is common to use untrained multivariate models for receptor modelling. These models produce a slightly different output each time they are run. The fact that a single model can provide different results is rarely acknowledged. In this manuscript, we attempt to address this by investigating differences that can be generated using four different receptor models (NMF, ALS, PMF & PVA) to perform source apportionment of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in surface sediments from Portland Harbor. Results showed that models generally had a strong agreement and identified the same main signatures that represented commercial PCB mixtures, however, subtle differences were identified by; different models, same models but with a different number of end members (EM), and the same model with the same number of end members. As well as identifying different Aroclor-like signatures, the relative proportion of these sources also varied. Depending on which method is selected it may have a significant impact on conclusions of a scientific report or litigation case and ultimately, allocation on who is responsible for paying for remediation. Therefore, care must be taken to understand these uncertainties to select a method that produces consistent results with end members that can be chemically explained. We also investigated a novel approach to use our multivariate models to identify inadvertent sources of PCBs. By using a residual plot produced from one of our models (NMF) we were able to suggest the presence of approximately 30 different potentially inadvertently produced PCBs which account for 6.6 % of the total PCBs in Portland Harbor sediments.