The theoretical problems of "prodrome" and "phenoconversion" in neurodegeneration

The recognition of and approach to prodromal symptoms, those which manifest before a diagnosis can be ascertained at the bedside, are of increasing interest in neurodegenerative research. A prodrome is conceived of as an early window into a disease, a critical time when putative disease-modifying interventions may be best suited for examination. Several challenges affect research in this area. Prodromal symptoms are highly prevalent in the population, can be nonprogressive for years or decades, and exhibit limited specificity in predicting conversion versus nonconversion into a neurodegenerative category within a time window feasible for most longitudinal clinical studies. In addition, there is a large range of biological alterations subsumed within each prodromal syndrome, forced to converge into the unifying nosology of each neurodegenerative disorder. Initial prodromal subtyping efforts have been developed but given the scarcity of prodrome-to-disease longitudinal studies, it is not yet clear whether any prodromal subtype can be predicted to evolve into the corresponding subtype of manifesting disease - a form of construct validity. As current subtypes generated from one clinical population are not faithfully replicated to others, it is likely that, lacking biological or molecular anchors, prodromal subtypes may only be applicable to the cohorts within which they were developed. Furthermore, as clinical subtypes have not aligned with a consistent pattern of pathology or biology, such might also be the fate of prodromal subtypes. Finally, the threshold defining the change from prodrome to disease for most neurodegenerative disorders remains clinical (e.g., a motor change in gait becoming noticeable to a clinician or measurable with portable technologies), not biological. As such, a prodrome can be viewed as a disease state not yet overt to a clinician. Efforts into identifying biological subtypes of disease, regardless of clinical phenotype or disease stage, may best serve future disease-modifying therapeutic strategies deployed not for a prodromal symptom but for a defined biological derangement as soon as it can be determined to lead to clinical changes, prodromal or not.