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07:42
A Data-Driven Approach to Quantifying Immune States in Sepsis
Published on: February 7, 2025
291
Periodic epidemic outbursts explained by local saturation of clusters
Louis Gostiaux1, Wouter J T Bos1, Jean-Pierre Bertoglio1
1Univ Lyon, École Centrale de Lyon, INSA Lyon, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, CNRS, Laboratoire de Mécanique des Fluides et d'Acoustique, UMR 5509, 36 Avenue Guy de Collongue, F-69134 Ecully, France.
Physical Review. E
|February 17, 2023
Summary
This study introduces spatial locality into the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, explaining epidemic outbursts seen in COVID-19. Slow immunity decay leads to fully periodic epidemic dynamics.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Biology
- Infectious Disease Dynamics
Background:
- Traditional epidemic models like SIR do not fully capture localized epidemic saturation.
- Observed epidemic patterns, such as those in COVID-19 and the Spanish flu, exhibit periodic outbursts.
Purpose of the Study:
- To incorporate spatial locality into the SIR model to better represent epidemic dynamics.
- To investigate the impact of decaying immunity on epidemic periodicity.
Main Methods:
- Developed a minimal epidemic model with five ordinary differential equations.
- Introduced constant model coefficients to represent spatial locality.
- Analyzed the model's behavior under conditions of decaying immunity.
Main Results:
- The enhanced SIR model reproduces slowly decaying periodic outbursts.
- The model successfully captures local saturation effects within an epidemic.
- Demonstrated that even slow immunity decay results in fully periodic epidemic dynamics.
Conclusions:
- Spatial locality is crucial for modeling epidemic saturation and periodic outbursts.
- The model provides a framework for understanding long-term epidemic behavior, including the influence of waning immunity.
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