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Area of Science:

  • Climate Science
  • Atmospheric Chemistry
  • Ecology

Background:

  • Atmospheric CO2 growth rate (CGR) variability is primarily driven by tropical temperature fluctuations.
  • The sensitivity of CGR to tropical temperature (Δ[CO2]/ΔT) showed a significant increasing trend globally since 1960.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the recent trend of the sensitivity of CGR to tropical temperature.
  • To identify factors influencing the observed changes in CGR sensitivity.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized long-term CO2 records from Mauna Loa and the South Pole to compute CGR.
  • Analyzed the sensitivity of CGR to tropical temperature over different time periods.
  • Correlated CGR sensitivity variations with precipitation changes and employed a dynamic vegetation model.

Main Results:

  • The sensitivity of CGR to tropical temperature increased by 200% from 1960-1979 to 1979-2000.
  • This trend reversed, with sensitivity decreasing by 117% from 1980-2001 to 2001-2020, returning to 1960s levels.
  • Variations in sensitivity were significantly correlated with bi-decadal precipitation changes.

Conclusions:

  • The increasing trend in CGR sensitivity to tropical temperature has ceased.
  • Increased precipitation in recent decades has led to a decoupling of tropical temperature's impact on the carbon cycle.
  • Wetter conditions are a key factor in modulating the relationship between tropical temperature and atmospheric CO2 growth.