Integrated policies could raise China's soybean self-sufficiency and ease global land-use pressure

Growing demand for animal-sourced foods is intensifying global reliance on soybeans, with China, the largest consumer and a low self-sufficiency rate (SSR) country, driving global largest imports and associated environmental spillover. To improve its SSR, China has implemented policies including rehabilitating salt-affected land, approving genetically modified soybeans and promoting healthy dietary transition. Here we evaluated these interventions using a scenario-based framework benchmarked against a no-policy baseline reconstructed soybean demand. China's SSR declined from full self-sufficiency in 1961 to 17% by 2022 and is projected to decline to 12% by 2050 without intervention. Each 10% implementation of salt-affected land and genetically modified soybeans alone could increase soybean SSR by 1.4% and 1.0%, whereas a 50% healthy dietary implementation alone could raise to 17%. Although individual policies yield modest improvements, their combined implementation could increase SSR to 74% by 2030 and 80% by 2050. This shift could free soybean sufficient to feed 1.89 billion additional people globally while avoiding cropland expansion in tropical frontiers, enabling reforestation and carbon sequestration.