Predicting age at Alzheimer's dementia onset with the cognitive clock

Intervention of Alzheimer's dementia hinges on early diagnosis and advanced planning. This work utilizes the cognitive clock, a novel indicator of brain health, to develop a dementia prediction model that can be easily applied in broad settings.

Data came from over 3000 community-dwelling older adults. Cognitive age was estimated by aligning Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores to a clock that represents the typical cognitive aging profile. We identified a mean cognitive age at Alzheimer's dementia onset and predicted the corresponding chronological age at person-specific level.

The mean chronological age at baseline was 78 years. A total of 881 (28%) participants developed Alzheimer's dementia. The mean cognitive age at onset was 91 years. The predicted chronological age at onset had a mean (standard deviation) of 87.6 (6.7) years. The model's prediction accuracy was supported by multiple testing statistics.

Our model offers an easy-to-use tool for predicting person-specific age at Alzheimer's dementia onset.