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Optimal Epidemic Control under Uncertainty: Tradeoffs between Information Collection and Other Actions.
Julien Flaig1, Nicolas Houy2,3
1Epidemiology and Modelling of Infectious Diseases (EPIMOD), Lyon, France.
Summary
Public health decisions during epidemics involve tradeoffs between gaining information and other actions. Sometimes, delaying vaccination or using fewer doses with more data yields better outcomes than acting quickly with less certainty.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health Decision Science
- Mathematical Modeling
Background:
- Epidemics underscore the critical role of uncertainty in public health interventions.
- Resource allocation involves a trade-off between information gathering and other control measures.
- The value of information is crucial for policymakers navigating uncertain environments.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the trade-offs between acquiring information and implementing vaccination strategies under uncertainty.
- To quantify the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) considering public health constraints.
- To inform decision-making processes for epidemic control.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a deterministic susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model incorporating vaccination (1 or 2 doses).
- Incorporated uncertainty in disease parameters and vaccine characteristics.
- Evaluated trade-offs between information acquisition, vaccination timing, and vaccine dose quantity.
Main Results:
- Demonstrated that delaying vaccination with more information can be more effective than early vaccination with less information.
- Showcased scenarios where using fewer vaccine doses with enhanced information surpasses using more doses with limited data.
- Highlighted the context-dependent appropriateness of different public health responses under uncertainty.
Conclusions:
- Clearly defining and addressing the trade-off between information acquisition and constraint relaxation can enhance public health decision-making.
- Methodological insights are provided for optimizing epidemic control strategies in uncertain conditions.
- Emphasized the strategic importance of information value in public health policy.
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