Can we predict orthodontic extraction patterns by using machine learning?

To investigate the utility of machine learning (ML) in accurately predicting orthodontic extraction patterns in a heterogeneous population.

The material of this retrospective study consisted of records of 366 patients treated with orthodontic extractions. The dataset was randomly split into training (70%) and test sets (30%) and was stratified according to race/ethnicity and gender. Fifty-five cephalometric and demographic input data were used to train and test multiple ML algorithms. The extraction patterns were labelled according to the previous treatment plan. Random Forest (RF), Logistic Regression (LR), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithms were used to predict the patient's extraction patterns.

The highest class accuracy percentages were obtained for the upper and lower 1st premolars (U/L4s) (RF: 81.63%, LR: 63.27%, SVM: 63.27%) and upper 1st premolars only (U4s) extraction patterns (RF: 61.11%, LR: 72.22%, SVM: 72.22%). However, all methods revealed low class accuracy rates (<50%) for the upper 1st and lower 2nd premolars (U4/L5s), upper 2nd and lower 1st premolars (U5/L4s), and upper and lower 2nd premolars (U/L5s) extraction patterns. For the overall accuracy, RF yielded the highest percentage with 54.55%, followed by SVM with 52.73% and LR with 49.09%.

All tested supervised ML techniques yielded good accuracy in predicting U/L4s and U4s extraction patterns. However, they predicted poorly for the U4/L5s, U5/L4s, and U/L5s extraction patterns. Molar relationship, mandibular crowding, and overjet were found to be the most predictive indicators for determining extraction patterns.