Changes in Notified Incidence of Pulmonary Tuberculosis in China, 2005-2020

To evaluate the trend of notified incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in China at different periods by population and region and to explore the effect of TB prevention and control in recent years.

Using pooled data on TB cases reported by the TB Information Management Reporting System (TBIMS) from 2005 to 2020, we calculated the annual percentage change (APC) using the Joinpoint regression model.

From 2005 to 2020, a total of 16.2 million cases of PTB were reported in China, with an average notified incidence of 75.5 per 100,000 population. The age standardization rate (ASR) continued to decline from 116.9 (/100,000) in 2005 to 47.6 (/100,000) in 2020, with an average annual decrease of 5.6% [APC = -5.6, 95% confidence interval ( CI): -7.0 to -4.2]. The smallest decline occurred in 2011-2018 (APC = -3.4, 95% CI: -4.6 to -2.3) and the largest decrease in 2018-2020 (APC = -9.2, 95% CI: -16.4 to -1.3). From 2005 to 2020, the ASR in males (159.8 per 100,000 in 2005, 72.0 per 100,000 in 2020) was higher than that in females (62.2 per 100,000 in 2005, 32.3 per 100,000 in 2020), with an average annual decline of 6.0% for male and 4.9% for female. The average notified incidence was the highest among older adults (65 years and over) (182.3/100,000), with an average annual decline of 6.4%; children (0-14 years) were the lowest (4.8/100,000), with an average annual decline of 7.3%, but a significant increase of 3.3% between 2014 and 2020 (APC = 3.3, 95% CI: 1.4 to 5.2); middle-aged (35-64 years) decreased by 5.8%; and youth (15-34 years) decreased by an average annual rate of 4.2%. The average ASR in rural areas (81.3/100,000) is higher than that in urban areas (76.1/100,000). The average annual decline in rural areas was 4.5% and 6.3% in urban areas. South China had the highest average ASR (103.2/100,000), with an average annual decline of 5.9%, while North China had the lowest (56.5/100,000), with an average annual decline of 5.9%. The average ASR in the southwest was 95.3 (/100,000), with the smallest annual decline (APC = -4.5, 95% CI: -5.5 to -3.5); the average ASR in the Northwest China was 100.1 (/100,000), with the largest annual decline (APC = -6.4, 95% CI: -10.0 to -2.7); Central, Northeastern, and Eastern China declined by an average of 5.2%, 6.2%, and 6.1% per year, respectively.

From 2005 to 2020, the notified incidence of PTB in China continued to decline, falling by 55%. For high-risk groups such as males, older adults, high-burden areas in South, Southwest, and Northwest China, and rural regions, proactive screening should be strengthened to provide timely and effective anti-TB treatment and patient management services for confirmed cases. There is also a necessity to be vigilant about the upward trend of children in recent years, the specific reasons for which need to be further studied.