Development of a Risk Stratification Model for Pre-liver-Transplant Screening Colonoscopy

Colonoscopies are routinely obtained before liver transplantation, although their utility is a highly debated topic in the literature. We aimed to determine the risk factors in patients with decompensated cirrhosis (DC) for post-colonoscopy complications (PCC).

We performed a single-center retrospective study of patients with DC undergoing colonoscopy as part of their pre-liver-transplant evaluation. The primary composite outcome was defined as a complication occurring within 30 days of the colonoscopy. Complications included acute renal failure, new or worsening ascites or hepatic encephalopathy, gastrointestinal bleeding, or any cardiopulmonary or infectious complication. Logistic regression analysis was utilized to derive a risk score in predicting the primary composite outcome.

The strongest predictors of post-colonoscopy complication were MELD-Na ≥21 [aOR 4.0026 ( P =0.0050)] and history of any infection in the 30 days before colonoscopy [aOR 8.4345 ( P =0.0093)]. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the final model was 0.78. The predicted risk of any complication at the lowest quartile was 16.2% to 39.4%, and the observed risk was 30.6% (95% CI: 15.5-45.6%), while the predicted risk at the highest quartile was 71.9% to 97.1%, and the observed risk was 81.3% (95% CI: 67.7-95%).

In this cohort of patients with DC undergoing colonoscopy for pre-liver-transplant evaluation, a history of ascites, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, and MELD-Na were found to be predictive of PCC. This risk score may help to predict PCC in patients with DC undergoing a pre-transplant colonoscopy. External validation is recommended.