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A risk-based decision framework for policy analysis of societal pandemic effects
Mats Danielson1,2, Love Ekenberg1,2, Nadejda Komendantova2
1Department of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
Frontiers in Public Health
|March 6, 2023
Summary
This study presents a flexible policy analysis model for pandemic mitigation, adaptable for Covid-19 and future health emergencies. It enhances decision-making by integrating imprecise data and societal needs for effective pandemic preparedness.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Decision Science
- Risk Management
Background:
- Pandemic preparedness requires robust policy analysis frameworks capable of handling complex, uncertain information.
- Existing models often struggle with imprecise data, qualitative estimates, and diverse societal criteria.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and demonstrate a systematic policy analysis framework for pandemic mitigation.
- To adapt existing methods for handling imprecise information in risk assessment and multi-criteria decision-making.
- To create a model aligned with societal needs for current and future health emergencies.
Main Methods:
- Utilized decision trees and multi-criteria hierarchies extended with belief distributions for weights, probabilities, and values.
- Employed combination rules within an extended expected value model to aggregate information under uncertainty.
- Applied the computer-supported tool DecideIT for aggregate decision analysis.
Main Results:
- The framework was successfully applied in Botswana, Romania, and Jordan for real-time policy-making.
- Extended application for scenario-building during the Covid-19 third wave in Sweden demonstrated feasibility.
- The model proved effective in considering various mitigation levels and consequence sets under multiple criteria.
Conclusions:
- The developed framework offers a more fine-grained approach to policy decisions during pandemics.
- This model is highly adaptable for future pandemics and other society-wide hazardous emergencies.
- The approach enhances alignment with societal needs in policy-making for public health crises.
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