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COVID-19 Contact Tracing as an Indicator for Evaluating a Pandemic Situation: Simulation Study.
Manuel Marques-Cruz1,2,3,4, Diogo Nogueira-Leite1,2,3, João Miguel Alves1,2,3
1Department of Community Medicine, Information and Decision in Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal.
JMIR Public Health and Surveillance
|March 6, 2023
Summary
Contact tracing effectiveness can be measured by the ratio of COVID-19 cases from quarantined contacts. This ratio helps predict pandemic phases and guides public health decisions for better COVID-19 control.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Infectious Disease Modeling
Background:
- Contact tracing is crucial for controlling COVID-19 transmission by breaking chains of infection.
- Resource limitations impact contact tracing capacity, necessitating effectiveness threshold estimation.
- A higher ratio of COVID-19 cases from quarantined high-risk contacts indicates better epidemic control.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the ratio of COVID-19 cases in quarantined high-risk contacts as a pandemic control indicator.
- To establish a theoretical effectiveness threshold for contact tracing.
Main Methods:
- A 6-compartment epidemiological model was developed using Portuguese COVID-19 data.
- Simulations incorporated infection risk, time to infection, and vaccine efficacy, including variants and boosters.
- The daily ratio of infected cases from high-risk contacts (q estimate) was calculated and analyzed against pandemic phases and lockdowns.
Main Results:
- An inverse relationship (correlation >0.70) was observed between the q estimate and daily COVID-19 cases.
- Theoretical effectiveness thresholds showed a positive predictive value >70% in the alert phase.
- The q estimate could have predicted the need for additional measures 4 days prior to the second and fourth lockdowns.
Conclusions:
- The study demonstrates the impact of an effectiveness threshold for contact tracing on public health decision-making.
- The q estimate serves as an indirect indicator of contact tracing efficacy.
- This metric can help predict pandemic phases and inform the necessity of further restrictions.
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