Modelling physical contacts to evaluate the individual risk in a dense crowd

Area of Science:

• Physics
• Social Sciences
• Safety Engineering

Background:

• Crowd disasters, such as stampedes, pose significant safety challenges.
• Existing crowd safety management often relies on macroscopic models.
• Individual irrational behavior is a key factor contributing to crowd instability.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a novel method for evaluating individual risk in dense crowds.
• To improve the accuracy and reliability of crowd disaster prevention strategies.
• To provide a microscopic perspective on crowd dynamics and risk assessment.

Main Methods:

• A pedestrian dynamical model incorporating collision impulses and pushing forces was developed.
• This model addresses acceleration errors inherent in traditional dynamical equations.
• The simulation successfully reproduced the 'human domino effect' in dense crowds.

Main Results:

• The model quantitatively evaluates individual crushing and trampling risks.
• It successfully simulates the human domino effect, a precursor to stampedes.
• The method avoids acceleration errors found in conventional dynamical models.

Conclusions:

• This novel approach offers a more reliable and integral data foundation for individual risk assessment.
• The method demonstrates superior portability and repeatability compared to macroscopic evaluations.
• It provides crucial insights for enhancing crowd safety and preventing large-scale disasters.