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Global concurrent climate extremes exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change
Sha Zhou1,2, Bofu Yu3, Yao Zhang4
1State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
Science Advances
|March 10, 2023
Summary
Concurrent climate extremes like heat and heavy rainfall are increasing globally. This study reveals human activity has amplified temperature extremes, with future emissions pathways significantly worsening both temperature and precipitation extremes, especially in the tropics.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Extreme Weather Events
- Statistical Modeling
Background:
- Concurrent climate extremes pose significant threats to global ecosystems and societies.
- Understanding the spatial patterns and temporal changes of these events is crucial for effective adaptation.
- Previous research has not fully elucidated the global dependence and historical/future changes in co-occurring extreme temperature and precipitation events.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a statistical framework for assessing spatial dependence in concurrent climate extremes.
- To analyze historical and projected changes in the concurrence of temperature and precipitation extremes.
- To inform climate change adaptation strategies by identifying high-risk regions and emission pathways.
Main Methods:
- Development of a statistical framework to test for spatial dependence in climate extremes.
- Analysis of observational data and climate model simulations (e.g., Shared Socioeconomic Pathways - SSPs).
- Quantification of the impact of historical anthropogenic forcing and future emission scenarios (SSP585, SSP126) on extreme event concurrence.
Main Results:
- Widespread spatial dependence of temperature and precipitation extremes was identified in both observations and model simulations.
- Historical anthropogenic forcing has significantly strengthened concurrent temperature extremes over 56% of analyzed regions, particularly in the tropics.
- The high-emissions pathway (SSP585) is projected to substantially amplify the strength, intensity, and spatial extent of concurrent temperature and precipitation extremes, while the mitigation pathway (SSP126) shows potential to ameliorate these increases.
Conclusions:
- Concurrent climate extremes exhibit significant spatial dependence globally.
- Anthropogenic climate change has already impacted temperature extreme concurrence, with future emissions poised to drastically increase concurrent extreme events.
- Mitigation strategies are vital to reduce the amplified risks of concurrent climate extremes, especially in vulnerable tropical and boreal regions.
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