Examining Longitudinal Associations Between Future Orientation and Multiple Forms of Youth Violence Perpetration

Future orientation, defined as hopes and aspirations for the future, is gaining promise as a cross-cutting protective factor against youth violence. This study assessed how future orientation longitudinally predicted multiple forms of violence perpetration among minoritized male youth in neighborhoods made vulnerable by concentrated disadvantage.

Data were drawn from a sexual violence (SV) prevention trial among 817 predominately African American male youth, ages 13 to 19, residing in neighborhoods disproportionately impacted by community violence. We used latent class analysis to create baseline future orientation profiles of participants. Mixed effects models examined how future orientation classes predicted multiple forms of violence perpetration (i.e., weapon violence, bullying, sexual harassment, non-partner SV, and intimate partner SV) at 9-month follow-up.

Latent class analysis yielded four classes, with nearly 80% of youth belonging to moderately high and high future orientation classes. We found significant overall associations between latent class and weapon violence, bullying, sexual harassment, non-partner SV, and SV (all p < .01). While patterns of association differed across each type of violence, violence perpetration was consistently highest among youth in the low-moderate future orientation class. Compared to youth in the low future orientation class, youth in the low-moderate class had higher odds of bullying (odds ratio 3.51, 95% confidence interval: 1.56-7.91) and sexual harassment perpetration (odds ratio 3.44, 95% confidence interval: 1.49-7.94).

The longitudinal relationship between future orientation and youth violence may not be linear. Greater attention to nuanced patterns of future orientation may better inform interventions seeking to harness this protective factor to reduce youth violence.