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A threshold effect of COVID-19 risk on oil price returns
Yiguo Sun1, Delong Li1, Chenyi Suo1
1Department of Economics and Finance, Gordon S. Lang School of Business and Economics, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario N1G2W1, Canada.
Abstract:
Using U.S. data, we investigate how the COVID-19 pandemic influences oil price returns in an asset pricing framework. Unlike earlier studies, we consider a threshold model to allow for the possibility that COVID-19 risk may not play a role until it reaches a certain level. Based on WTI crude oil spot price data from January 2020 to December 2021, our findings show that oil returns significantly decline with the daily number of COVID-19 deaths but only if the daily death toll exceeds approximately 2100. In addition, a more severe COVID-19 pandemic can substantially increase the exposure of oil returns to various systematic risk factors, which has not been documented in previous literature.
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