I'll be back - Predictive validity of adults' expectations for recovery after fractures - A longitudinal...

Recovery after fractures due to accidents relates to all aspects of the biopsychosocial model. Therefore, it is difficult for the patients to foresee the consequences of the fractures. This study aimed to examine 1) patients' expectations regarding the impact of the injury on everyday life, 2) predictive validity of their expectations after six months, and 3) factors that predict a return to work.

Patients were 18-64 years old and hospitalized with simple or compound/multiple fractures due to an accident. During admission, structured interviews were conducted with a questionnaire covering working conditions, expectations regarding recovery, sports, economy, family, household, and return to work. Additionally, mental and physical status were covered with Short Musculoskeletal Function Assessment questionnaire (SMFA) and Short Form 36, and working conditions were uncovered too. After six months, telephonic interviews were conducted with the 164 available patients to elucidate the impact of the fractures on everyday life, their health status, and sick leave. Likelihood ratios, post-test probabilities, and logistic regression analysis were performed to establish if patients' expectations predicted recovery, economy, sports, family, household, and return to work.

Few patients' baseline expectations about everyday life were met. The likelihood ratios were small, and the post-test probabilities for expectations consistent with outcomes were between 18% and 68%, with recovery as the lowest and participation in sports as the highest. In the multivariate analysis, patients' expectations did not predict short-term (less than two months) or long-term sick leave (more than three months). Self-rated health and the bother index of SMFA were significant short-term and long-term predictors for sick leave. Additionally, vitality, pain, and decision latitude at work predicted sick leave of less than two months.

A few days after the accident, patients' expectations about everyday life are not associated with outcomes six months later. Likelihood ratios indicate difficulties for the patients in predicting fractures' consequences on various aspects of everyday life. Return to work was associated with self-rated health and the bother index of SMFA. Future research should examine if fracture patients can benefit from comprehensive, individual counseling during admission to set appropriate expectations.