Progressive changes in platelet counts and Fib-4 scores precede the diagnosis of advanced fibrosis in NASH patients

Cirrhosis and its complications develop in a subgroup of patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NASH). Early detection of liver fibrosis represents an important goal of clinical care.

To test the hypothesis that the development of cirrhosis in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease patients is preceded by the long-term trends of platelet counts and Fib-4 scores.

We identified all patients in our healthcare system who had undergone fibrosis staging by liver biopsy or magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease during the past decade (n = 310). Platelet counts, serum glutamic-pyruvic transaminase and serum glutamic oxalacetic transaminase values preceding the staging tests were extracted from the electronic medical record system, and Fib-4 scores were calculated. Potential predictors of advanced fibrosis were evaluated using multivariate regression analysis.

Significant decreases in platelet counts and increases in Fib-4 scores were observed in all fibrosis stages, particularly in patients with cirrhosis. In the liver biopsy group, the presence of cirrhosis was best predicted by the combination of the Fib-4 score at the time closest to staging (P < 0.0001), the presence of diabetes (P = 0.0001), and the correlation coefficient of the preceding time-dependent drop in platelet count (P = 0.044). In the MRE group, Fib4 score (P = 0.0025) and platelet drop (P = 0.0373) were significant predictors. In comparison, the time-dependent rise of the Fib-4 score did not contribute in a statistically significant way.

Time-dependent changes in platelet counts and Fib-4 scores contribute to the prediction of cirrhosis in NASH patients with biopsy- or MRE-staged fibrosis. Their incorporation into predictive algorithms may assist in the earlier identification of high-risk patients.