Accelerating carbon neutrality could help China's energy system align with below 1.5 °C

Area of Science:

• Climate Change Modeling
• Energy Systems Analysis
• Environmental Policy

Background:

• China aims for carbon neutrality by 2060, aligning with Paris Agreement goals.
• Designing specific pathways for China's carbon neutrality is crucial.
• Global warming must be limited to 1.5°C to avoid severe climate impacts.

Purpose of the Study:

• To examine the implications of different carbon neutrality scenarios for China's energy system.
• To assess the feasibility of achieving below 1.5°C warming by 2100.
• To analyze the trade-offs between energy system transformation and carbon dioxide removal (CDR).

Main Methods:

• Application of a refined Chinese version of the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM).
• Analysis of four illustrative carbon neutrality scenarios.
• Evaluation of energy system alignment with 1.5°C warming targets until 2100.

Main Results:

• Accelerating carbon neutrality (e.g., by 2050) aids alignment with 1.5°C warming.
• A 2050 scenario reduces total mitigation costs by 1.04% of GDP and CDR reliance by 36% compared to a 2060 scenario.
• Earlier carbon neutrality presents short-term challenges, increasing costs by 13% between 2021-2050.

Conclusions:

• China can accelerate emissions reductions and energy system transformation for earlier carbon neutrality.
• Achieving carbon neutrality earlier offers economic and environmental co-benefits.
• National capabilities, circumstances, and international support are key factors for successful transition.