Identifying and overcoming the sampling challenges in relative binding free energy calculations of a model...

Relative alchemical binding free energy calculations are routinely used in drug discovery projects to optimize the affinity of small molecules for their drug targets. Alchemical methods can also be used to estimate the impact of amino acid mutations on protein:protein binding affinities, but these calculations can involve sampling challenges due to the complex networks of protein and water interactions frequently present in protein:protein interfaces. We investigate these challenges by extending a GPU-accelerated open-source relative free energy calculation package (Perses) to predict the impact of amino acid mutations on protein:protein binding. Using the well-characterized model system barnase:barstar, we describe analyses for identifying and characterizing sampling problems in protein:protein relative free energy calculations. We find that mutations with sampling problems often involve charge-changes, and inadequate sampling can be attributed to slow degrees of freedom that are mutation-specific. We also explore the accuracy and efficiency of current state-of-the-art approaches-alchemical replica exchange and alchemical replica exchange with solute tempering-for overcoming relevant sampling problems. By employing sufficiently long simulations, we achieve accurate predictions (RMSE 1.61, 95% CI: [1.12, 2.11] kcal/mol), with 86% of estimates within 1 kcal/mol of the experimentally-determined relative binding free energies and 100% of predictions correctly classifying the sign of the changes in binding free energies. Ultimately, we provide a model workflow for applying protein mutation free energy calculations to protein:protein complexes, and importantly, catalog the sampling challenges associated with these types of alchemical transformations. Our free open-source package (Perses) is based on OpenMM and available at https://github.com/choderalab/perses .