The effect of cycles of genomic selection on the wheat (T. aestivum) genome

We documented changes in the wheat genome attributed to genomic selection including loss of diversity, and changes in population structure and linkage disequilibrium patterns. We conclude that training and prediction populations need to co-evolve instead of the use of a static training population. Genomic selection (GS) is widely used in plant breeding to shorten breeding cycles. Our objective was to assess the impact of rapid cycling GS on the wheat genome. We used 3927 markers to genotype a training population (YTP) and individuals from five cycles (YC1-YC5) of GS for grain yield. We assessed changes of allele frequency, genetic distance, population structure, and linkage disequilibrium (LD). We found 27.3% of all markers had a significant allele frequency change by YC5, 18% experienced a significant change attributed to selection, and 9.3% had a significant change due to either drift or selection. A total of 725 of 3927 markers were fixed by YC5 with selection fixing 7.3% of the 725 markers. The genetic distance between cycles increased over time. The Fst value of 0.224 between YTP and YC5 indicates their relationship was low. The number LD blocks decreased over time and the correlation between LD matrices also decreased over time. Overall, we found a reduction in genetic diversity, increased genetic differentiation of cycles from the training population, and restructuring of the LD patterns over cycles. The accuracy of GS depends on the genomic similarity of the training population and the prediction populations. Our results show that the similarity can decline rapidly over cycles of GS and compromise the predictive ability of the YTP-based model. Our results support implementing a GS scheme where the training and prediction populations co-evolve instead of the use of a static training population.