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Water cycle changes in reanalyses: a complementary framework.

Mijael Rodrigo Vargas Godoy1, Yannis Markonis2

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Climate reanalyses improve global water cycle understanding. A new framework evaluating precipitation and evaporation fluxes reveals discrepancies, enhancing reanalysis performance assessment and water cycle change insights.

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Area of Science:

  • Earth System Science
  • Climate Science
  • Hydrology

Background:

  • Climate reanalyses provide extensive global data, crucial for understanding the water cycle, especially in unmonitored regions.
  • Despite improvements, varying performance and uncertainties in reanalysis datasets limit their precise application in water cycle studies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To introduce and apply a framework using precipitation and evaporation fluxes (sum and difference) to better constrain uncertainties in climate reanalyses.
  • To evaluate the performance of four major reanalysis datasets (20CR v3, ERA-20C, ERA5, NCEP1) concerning global water cycle changes.

Main Methods:

  • Physically defining and analyzing the sum and difference of precipitation and evaporation fluxes across four reanalysis datasets.
  • Comparing the response of these water cycle fluxes to temperature increases between 1950 and 2010 across the selected datasets.

Main Results:

  • Four distinct responses to temperature increase were observed among the reanalysis datasets regarding water cycle fluxes.
  • ERA5 demonstrated the strongest agreement with the water cycle acceleration hypothesis, indicating improved performance.
  • The proposed framework effectively unveiled discrepancies in the datasets that might otherwise be overlooked.

Conclusions:

  • The developed framework enhances the evaluation of climate reanalysis performance for water cycle studies.
  • Implementing this framework improves the understanding of global water cycle changes and aids in selecting reliable reanalysis data.