Disease phenotypic and geospatial features vary across genetic lineages for Tuberculosis within Arkansas, 2010-2020

Tuberculosis (TB) elimination in the United States remains elusive, and community-specific, localized intervention strategies may be necessary to meet elimination goals. A better understanding of the genotypic diversity of Mtb, the population subgroups affected by different TB strains, and differences in disease presentation associated with these strains can aid in identifying risk groups and designing tailored interventions. We analyze TB incidence and genotype data from all Arkansas counties over an 11-year time span from 2010 through 2020. We use statistical methods and geographic information systems (GIS) to identify demographic and disease phenotypic characteristics that are associated with different Mtb genetic lineages in the study area. We found the following variables to be significantly associated with genetic lineage (p<0.05): patient county, patient birth country, patient ethnicity, race, IGRA result, disease site, chest X-ray result, whether or not a case was identified as part of a cluster, patient age, occupation risk, and date arrived in the US. Different Mtb lineages affect different subpopulations in Arkansas. Lineage 4 (EuroAmerican) and Lineage 2 (East Asian) are most prevalent, although the spatial distributions differ substantially, and lineage 2 (East Asian) is more frequently associated with case clusters. The Marshallese remain a particularly high-risk group for TB in Arkansas.