Excess Deaths in the United States Compared to 18 Other High-Income Countries

The U.S. is exceptional among high-income countries for poor survival outcomes. Understanding the distribution of excess deaths by age, sex, and cause of death, is essential for bringing U.S. mortality in line with international peers. We use 2016 data from the World Health Organization Mortality Database and the Human Mortality Database to calculate excess deaths in the U.S. relative to each of 18 high-income comparison countries. The U.S. experiences excess mortality in every age and sex group, and for 16 leading causes of death. For example, the U.S. could potentially prevent 884,912 deaths by achieving the lower mortality rates of Japan, the comparison country yielding the largest number of excess deaths, which would be comparable to eliminating all deaths from heart disease, unintentional injuries, and diabetes mellitus. In contrast, the U.S. could potentially prevent just 176,825 deaths by achieving the lower mortality rates of Germany, the comparison country yielding the smallest number of excess deaths, which would be comparable to eliminating all deaths from chronic lower respiratory diseases and assault (homicide). Existing research suggests that policies that improve social conditions and health behaviors are more likely to bring U.S. mortality in line with peer countries than policies that support health care access or new biomedical technologies. Achieving the death rates of peer countries could result in mortality reductions comparable to eliminating leading causes of death.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11113-023-09762-6.