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Estimating fertility using adults: A method for under-enumerated pre-adult skeletal samples
Bonnie R Taylor1, Marc Oxenham1,2, Clare McFadden1
1School of Archaeology and Anthropology, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia.
American Journal of Biological Anthropology
|March 28, 2023
Summary
A new method estimates fertility in ancient populations using adult skeletal remains, even with missing infant data. This approach improves demographic analysis of underrepresented skeletal samples.
Area of Science:
- Paleodemography
- Archaeological Anthropology
- Bioarchaeology
Background:
- Infant underrepresentation in skeletal samples significantly biases palaeodemographic findings, particularly fertility estimates.
- Existing methods require unbiased pre-adult representation, leading to the exclusion of many valuable skeletal collections.
- There is a critical need for methods to estimate demographic parameters from skeletal samples with suspected infant under-enumeration.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a novel method for estimating the total fertility rate (TFR) from skeletal samples where pre-adults are underrepresented.
- To utilize reproductive-aged adults as a proxy for fertility estimation in biased skeletal assemblages.
- To enable the inclusion of previously excluded skeletal samples in palaeodemographic analyses.
Main Methods:
- Utilized United Nations mortality data and World Population Prospects TFR data.
- Assessed the correlation between known fertility and the proportion of individuals aged 15-49 years within the total adult sample (15+ years).
- Developed an indirect estimation method based on the ratio of adults aged 15-49 to adults aged 15+ (D15-49/D15+).
Main Results:
- The proportion of reproductive-aged adults (15-49 years) in a skeletal sample serves as a reliable proxy for fertility.
- A significant positive correlation was found between TFR and the D15-49/D15+ ratio.
- The new method demonstrated reasonable predictive accuracy and potential for improved outcomes compared to existing techniques for underrepresented samples.
Conclusions:
- A new method has been developed for estimating fertility from archaeological skeletal samples with underrepresented infants.
- This method facilitates the use of previously excluded, biased skeletal samples in palaeodemographic research.
- Integrating this method with contextual analysis represents a significant advancement in palaeodemography.
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