Scenario Simulation of the Relationship between Land-Use Changes and Ecosystem Carbon Storage: A Case Study in...

High-frequency land-use changes caused by rapid economic development have become a key factor in the imbalance of carbon sequestration within regions. How to balance economic development and ecological protection is a difficult issue for regional planning. Studying the relationship between future land-use changes and ecosystem carbon storage (CS) is of important significance for the optimization of regional land-use patterns. The research used the gray prediction model and coupled the patch-generating land-use simulation (PLUS) model and the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) model. On this basis, the evolution characteristics and spatial coordination between land-use changes and CS in the Dongting Lake Basin (DLB) in different scenarios in 2030 were simulated. The results show that: (1) The spatial distribution of CS remains stable in different scenarios, while land-use types with high carbon density in the periphery of cities are constantly invaded by construction land, which results in the greatest carbon loss in the urban areas. (2) Compared with the natural evolution scenario (NES), only 195.19 km² of land-use types with high carbon density are transformed into construction land in the ecological protection scenario (EPS), generating a carbon sink gain of 182.47 × 10⁴ Mg. Conversely, in the economic development scenario (EDS), a total of over 1400 km² of farmland and ecological land are transformed into construction land, which weakens the carbon sequestration capacity of ecosystems, and more than 147 × 10⁴ Mg of carbon loss occurs in the urban areas. (3) The planned development scenario (PDS) takes ecological protection and economic development both into consideration, which not only generates a carbon sink gain of 121.33 × 10⁴ Mg but also reduces the carbon loss in urban areas by more than 50%. The PDS performs well in both land use and CS growth and can better motivate the effect of land-use changes in increasing the carbon sink, which is also proved by analysis of the coordination between land-use intensity (LUI) and CS. Therefore, the PDS better satisfies the future development demand of DLB and can provide a reference for sustainable land use in the basin.