Evolution of Multidimensional Poverty in Crisis-Ridden Mozambique

Area of Science:

• Socioeconomic studies
• Development economics
• Poverty analysis

Background:

• Mozambique faced poverty reduction until recent crises: natural disasters, armed insurgency in Cabo Delgado, and a hidden debt crisis.
• The last national household survey predates these crises, necessitating alternative data for poverty assessment.
• Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) provide crucial data for tracking poverty evolution.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess the evolution of multidimensional poverty in Mozambique using alternative data sources.
• To analyze poverty trends between 2015 and 2018, a period marked by significant national challenges.
• To identify geographic and demographic disparities in poverty during the studied period.

Main Methods:

• Utilized Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) data for poverty analysis.
• Applied the Alkire-Foster multidimensional poverty index for comprehensive poverty measurement.
• Employed the first-order dominance (FOD) method to assess poverty changes and identify vulnerable populations.

Main Results:

• The declining trend in multidimensional poverty observed from 2009-11 to 2015 halted between 2015 and 2018.
• The number of poor individuals in Mozambique increased, particularly in rural areas and central provinces.
• No significant poverty reduction progress was observed for most areas and provinces between 2015 and 2018, according to FOD analysis.

Conclusions:

• Multidimensional poverty in Mozambique stagnated and potentially increased between 2015 and 2018.
• The poorest provinces failed to improve their relative poverty standing.
• Recent crises have likely reversed or halted progress in poverty reduction, highlighting the need for updated poverty monitoring.